Seafood exports: Will they prosper in 2024?

By the end of the third quarter of 2023, seafood exports reached over 6.6 billion USD, down 22% over the same period. According to experts, it will be at least until 2024 for seafood exports to flourish.

Many key products regained balance

Information from the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (Vasep), seafood export turnover in September 2023 is estimated to reach 862 million USD, equivalent to the same period in 2022 and a slight increase of 16 million USD compared to the previous month. . Accumulated by the end of the third quarter of 2023, seafood exports reached over 6.6 billion USD, down 22% over the same period.

Specifically, in September, a number of key export products regained balance compared to the same period last year; Of which, shrimp and tuna exports in September both reached levels equivalent to September 2022. Notably, the recovery of pangasius products with a positive growth rate of 9% compared to the same period last year. Exports of other products such as squid, octopus, crabs, and shellfish are still lower than the same period, but the decrease is only 6 - 12%.

Ms. Le Hang - Vasep Communications Director analyzed that statistics by the end of September 2023, shrimp exports reached 2.55 billion USD, still 25% lower than the same period in 2022. However, the results Exports in recent months have shown signs of recovery compared to previous months. The two main markets, the US and China, have begun to increase demand and seafood exports to these two markets have both recorded positive growth in the past 2 months.

Also according to VASEP, tuna exports have been on an improving trend, with sales in September equal to the same period in 2022. However, the continuous decline in the early part of the year has resulted in a cumulative 9 months of tuna exports. still down 23% over the same period and only reached 623 million USD.

With pangasius, exports in the first 9 months of the year recorded revenue of nearly 1.4 billion USD, down 31% compared to the same period in 2022. Pangasius exports are tending to gradually recover in the markets of China and Mexico. , Brazil, Netherlands, UK and US... In September 2023, exports to some markets have regained balance or reached higher levels compared to the same period in 2022.

Regarding the market, by the end of September 2023, seafood exports to the Top 3 largest markets, the US, China and Japan, all exceeded the 1 billion USD mark; Of which, the US still holds the No. 1 position with nearly 1.2 billion USD, 33% lower than the same period in 2022. Exports to the Chinese market reached 1.15 billion USD, down 15%, while exports to the Chinese market reached 1.15 billion USD, down 15%. Exports to the Japanese market reached nearly 1.1 billion USD, down 14% over the same period last year.

In September alone, seafood exports to the US, China, and EU all recovered, increasing from 4 to 17% over the same period in 2022.

Seafood exports will bring in sales of more than 9 billion USD

Commenting on the seafood market in the last months of the year, many opinions say that exports in the last months of the year will be difficult to make a breakthrough even though the decline compared to the same period gradually narrows over the months. Shrimp export results in 2023 are estimated to only reach about 85 - 90% compared to 2022. This forecast is based on cyclicality, this time every year is already the peak delivery time, while this year the number of orders There has been an increase but not much and the selling price has not improved.

On the other hand, the inflation situation in many markets shows no signs of returning to normal, even the Yen (Japan) is at a record low (148 Yen/USD) while Japan is an important export market. current point. That is also the reason why farmed shrimp production is decreasing sharply but there is no shortage of raw materials at processing enterprises, because export demand is not high, there are still raw materials in stock.

A notable point emphasized by Vasep is that in September, Vietnam - the United States upgraded their bilateral relationship to a comprehensive strategic partnership. Accordingly, the United States will soon consider market economy status for Vietnam. “If that is done soon, the consideration of ending the anti-dumping lawsuit against shrimp and pangasius will have a stronger foundation and basis. Along with the initiative of seafood businesses in adapting to all circumstances, we hope the situation will turn in a positive direction" - Vasep emphasized and made a forecast, if there are no unexpected changes. Since the market and raw material sources do not decline sharply, seafood exports in 2023 will bring in sales of about 9.2 - 9.3 billion USD.

Meanwhile, according to experts, net revenue and net profit of many businesses in the industry will increase strongly again in 2024, because exports will begin to recover at the end of the fourth quarter of 2023 or at the beginning of the year. 2024.